As the crypto markets evolve, the mood around VeChain (VET) is growing cautious. Historically, November has been one of VET’s better months—but things aren’t lining up this year. Below is a detailed breakdown of the key factors influencing this sentiment, what to watch for, and the potential paths ahead.
1. The Historical Edge: November’s Track Record
Over the past seven years, VET has shown a strong historical performance in November:
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A median gain of about 10.9 %, and an average gain near 20.9 %, making it the strongest month on average for the token.
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Often this surge comes after quieter trading periods, setting up investor optimism for a rebound.
However—the flip side is that this good month has often preceded a difficult December for VET, making any gains somewhat fragile.
2. Current Market Sentiment: Why Confidence Is Shaky
Despite the positive seasonality, key metrics are flashing caution:
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Open interest (OI) in the derivatives markets for VET has dropped from approximately $110 million down to $28 million, where it has remained subdued for over a month. This signals reduced wagering by traders and a lack of fresh speculative capital coming in.
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Price-wise, VET has recovered a bit (a 20% gain in the recent week) but remains significantly below pre-drop levels after a sharp October slump.
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The discrepancy between favorable seasonal expectation and weak actual engagement suggests that traders are waiting on the sidelines, perhaps looking for clearer confirmation or fearing that the seasonal boost may be overrated.
3. Technical Picture: Key Levels and Pattern to Watch
From a technical standpoint, VET is at a decision point:
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It’s trading around $0.0158, and facing resistance near $0.0173.
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The token appears to be forming a bearish wedge (a falling wedge or descending wedge, depending on interpretation). If it breaks above the resistance at $0.0173, a short-term bullish move could target ~$0.0200—which would help recover some of last month’s ~28% loss.
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Conversely, if VET fails to break up and slips below the support around ~$0.0157, it could slide further toward ~$0.0147, which would undermine the bullish bias and confirm that the seasonal uplift is not operating this cycle.
4. Why Traders Might Be Holding Back
Several reasons why traders may be hesitant now:
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Momentum weakness: Even with a recent rebound window, the fact that OI remains low indicates many are not convinced of a strong move.
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Historical caveat: The good November performance may be baked in already, or traders might fear that gains will be short-lived given December’s past issues.
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Risk-management mindset: After a strong drop in October, many traders may prefer waiting for confirmation rather than jumping in early.
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Technical uncertainty: The wedge pattern shows potential upside, but also highlights risk of breakdown—so the reward/risk isn’t clearly skewed in one direction yet.
5. What to Watch Going Forward
If you’re considering VET or simply observing the market, these are the key triggers to monitor:
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Open interest: A meaningful uptick in OI would signal renewed interest and could act as a catalyst for price.
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Break of $0.0173 resistance: A clear breakout could open the path to ~$0.0200 and change market perception.
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Failure to hold ~$0.0157 support: A breakdown here might invalidate the bullish case for November and shift focus to downside risk.
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Broader crypto-market trend: As with many altcoins, VET’s performance will be influenced by major crypto-market drivers (e.g., BTC/ETH trends, regulatory news, macroeconomics).
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Seasonal behaviour: While historical data suggests November is strong for VET, it’s not guaranteed—market context matters.
6. Conclusion
In summary: Despite favorable historical trends, traders are being cautious on VET this November. The subdued open interest and mixed technical signals suggest they’re waiting for confirmation rather than entering early. For VET to regain its seasonal strength, it will likely need a catalyst: either a breakout above resistance or revived market participation. Until then, the upside remains potential rather than assured, and downside risk cannot be ignored.
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