In recent commentary, analysts are pointing to a meaningful correlation between the monthly Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI — a key indicator of manufacturing and economic activity in the U.S. — and the cycle tops of Bitcoin. That insight suggests that Bitcoin’s current cycle may extend beyond what history might otherwise suggest.
The PMI–Bitcoin Link
The ISM manufacturing PMI has long carried interest as a macroeconomic signal, but what’s gaining attention now is how its peaks have aligned with past Bitcoin cycle tops. According to analyst Colin Talks Crypto:
“All 3 past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly aligned with this monthly, oscillating index.”
That statement implies that when the PMI reaches certain high levels, Bitcoin tends to be nearing or at a cyclical peak. The suggestion is that if the PMI remains subdued (or doesn’t surge quickly), Bitcoin’s upward momentum might continue longer, delaying the cycle top.
Current Economic Context
At present, the PMI has been below the neutral 50 level for several months, signalling contraction in manufacturing in the U.S. However, past periods show that a pandemic, trade tensions and supply-chain disruptions complicate how “normal” business cycles play out. Some aspects worth noting:
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A PMI sustained above ~42.3 did not automatically signal recession in past decades, per ISM commentary.
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Even with manufacturing pressures, services and other sectors may compensate, making the broader economy more resilient.
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If manufacturing remains weak, it may influence risk assets like Bitcoin in different ways than simply “boom then bust”.
Given this environment, the logic goes: if the PMI doesn’t spike up quickly (which in the past tended to accompany the “top” for Bitcoin), then Bitcoin may still have more upside or more runway before a major reversal.
Implications for the Bitcoin Cycle
If the correlation holds, here are some implications to consider:
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Extended bullish period: Rather than Bitcoin peaking within a “typical” timeframe (based on previous cycles), the cycle might continue into 2026 or beyond.
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Timing matters: Investors who assume a short cycle might be caught off guard if the top is delayed.
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Risk of complacency: A prolonged up-trend can breed overconfidence — but extended cycles don’t mean risk disappears.
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Macro dependency: The cycle is more tightly linked to broad economic indicators (like PMI) and maybe monetary policy or inflation expectations, not just crypto-specific factors.
Cautionary Notes
While the story is compelling, it’s important to keep in mind:
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Correlation is not causation: The PMI-Bitcoin alignment is interesting, but it doesn’t guarantee identical future behaviour.
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Many variables are at play: Crypto markets have evolved (institutional adoption, ETFs, regulation) compared to earlier cycles.
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Market sentiment and external shocks still matter: A dramatic policy shift, regulatory surprise or macro event could break the pattern.
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Historical norms may change: Just because past cycles peaked in a certain way doesn’t mean future cycles must follow the same pattern.
Conclusion
In sum, the view that the Bitcoin cycle could last longer than usual is supported by a plausible macro-link: the ISM PMI. If manufacturing remains weak (or the PMI doesn’t surge), Bitcoin might continue upward momentum for some time before the next major top. That gives investors a different lens through which to view timing and risk — not assuming “peak soon” simply because history suggests so, but staying alert to the broader economic signals that might finally indicate when the top is near.
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