The price chart of Bitcoin (BTC) continues to reflect a bullish setup — yet the actual upward movement remains frustratingly delayed. According to the article on CoinPhoton, despite technical patterns pointing to a potential breakout, BTC is encountering resistance and structural inertia. Here’s a long‑form breakdown of what’s going on, why the rally is being blocked, and what might spark the move.
1. The Bullish Setup
According to the piece, Bitcoin is showing a number of promising signals:
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On the technical chart, a potential “inverse head and shoulders” pattern is visible — a classic bullish reversal formation.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying bullish divergence: while the price created lower lows in late October, the RSI made higher lows — a typical precursor to trend reversal.
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On‑chain data reveals renewed accumulation among large holders (“whales”), specifically addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have increased in number over the past 30 days (first positive net change since August).
Put together, these elements suggest the structural foundations for a bullish breakout are in place.
2. Why the Stalling?
Despite the favorable setup, actual price action hasn’t yet delivered the breakout. The article identifies key friction points:
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Supply wall / cost basis hotspot: Data from a cost‑basis heat map shows roughly 434,000 BTC were acquired in the USD 110,000–112,500 range. That creates a large “wall of supply” — many holders bought around that level and may be inclined to sell when price returns there, effectively creating resistance.
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Technical resistance: That same range (~USD 112,500) coincides with a major technical barrier. Until BTC closes above this with conviction, the reversal pattern remains unconfirmed.
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Risk of invalidation: If price drops below USD 106,200 (and especially USD 103,500), the bullish structure would be broken and the dominance would shift back toward sellers.
3. What Could Trigger the Breakout?
The article outlines what needs to happen for the bullish thesis to materialize:
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Continued accumulation by whales could absorb the supply at the resistance zone, weakening seller pressure and allowing an upward move.
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A daily close above USD 116,400 would validate the inverse‑head‑shoulders pattern and open potential targets: USD 122,000 → 125,900 → 130,800.
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Conversely, a close (or sustained move) beneath key support levels would force a reassessment — the bullish case would be undermined.
4. Implications for Traders & Investors
Given the above, here are some practical take‑aways:
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Patience matters: The bullish structure is there, but the trigger hasn’t fired yet. Chasing now without waiting for a breakout or confirming signal could be risky.
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Watch the $110 K–112.5 K zone closely: That area remains a battleground. If the price stalls there for too long without accumulation absorbing the supply, the risk of a pull‑back grows.
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Define invalidation clearly: For those trading the breakout, having a clear stop or risk point (e.g., a break below ~USD 106,200) is prudent.
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Use momentum confirmation: A close above USD 116,400 (daily) would be a meaningful signal of shift. Without it, the bullish case remains valid but dormant.
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Monitor on‑chain hallmarks: Whale behavior, cost‑basis maps, and supply zones are increasingly useful in a crypto market that often lacks the transparency of traditional markets.
5. Conclusion
In summary: the price chart of Bitcoin remains well‑positioned for a bullish move, but the market is waiting. A large cost basis zone around USD 110,000‑112,500, combined with technical resistance, is acting as a brake. Until either the supply wall is absorbed or a clear breakout closes above USD 116,400, the momentum will likely remain constrained.
For investors, this is a moment of potential rather than certainty. The structure is set — now we wait for the activation. If you’re in the market, aligning your strategy around these key levels and triggers could help navigate what might still be a slow build‑up toward a meaningful move.
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