In a recent analysis, crypto-market commentator Colin (crypto analyst) proposed a compelling scenario: what if Bitcoin (BTC) began to mirror the price path of Gold? According to his reasoning, a striking alignment of macro trends, technical indicators, and capital flows could set the stage for Bitcoin to embark on a major upward move.
1. The Premise: Bitcoin ≈ Gold
Colin’s starting point: gold and equities recently reached new all-time highs, and he finds it “hard to believe” that Bitcoin won’t eventually join the party.
He notes that in his charting, gold’s peak tends to precede Bitcoin’s peak by roughly 80 days. From this, he infers that if gold is near its top, Bitcoin may still have upside.
2. The Forecast: What Could Happen
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If Bitcoin follows gold’s lead, Colin predicts it could begin a fresh leg up “within the next week”.
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He sketches a scenario where BTC could reach US $175,000 by January 2026 if the bullish trend extends.
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He also references institutional predictions (e.g., Standard Chartered) that set targets of US $150,000-200,000 for Bitcoin by year-end.
3. Supporting Technical Signals
Colin highlights that the 1,150-day simple moving average (SMA) has historically intersected major bull-run peaks (2017, 2021). Currently, that intersection hasn’t yet aligned with Bitcoin’s prior cycle top (~US $65,000), suggesting more upside remains. In his view, this supports the idea that Bitcoin’s cycle hasn’t peaked yet.
4. Risks & Caveats
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Colin acknowledges that his gold-to-bitcoin analogy may fail. He admits the scenario “may not be accurate for Bitcoin”.
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He points out market sentiment is currently muted (Bitcoin falling under US $100,000) and some investors worry a downturn is underway.
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The model assumes that macro capital flows, reserve-asset demand and investor psychology behave similarly to past cycles; if they don’t, the analogy breaks.
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As with any forecast, this is not investment advice — the original article makes that clear.
5. What It Means for Investors
If Bitcoin were to follow gold’s blueprint:
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It could mean that now is still within a bull-phase window rather than a top.
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Timing could point toward late-2025 / early-2026 for possible cycle highs.
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Investors might watch for confirmation of renewed upside (e.g., breakouts, strong capital inflows) rather than assuming a peak has arrived.
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On the other hand, if Bitcoin diverges from gold’s pattern, then the analogy may mislead and risk management becomes critical.
6. My Take
While the analogy is intriguing — aligning two major stores of value (gold and Bitcoin) and inferring a lagged response — I’d view it as one plausible scenario among many.
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Pros: It gives a structured way to frame Bitcoin’s upside potential, anchored in historical and technical precedent.
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Cons: The differences between gold (a centuries-old physical asset) and Bitcoin (a digital asset with unique network/consensus dynamics) are significant. The analogy may oversimplify.
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Key for me is monitoring signals: do we see Bitcoin’s turnover, on-chain metrics, institutional adoption and macro flows aligning with the bullish case? If yes, then the gold-analogy gains weight; if not, then caution is warranted.
7. Conclusion
The idea that Bitcoin could “go where gold has been” offers a powerful narrative and a bullish target of ~US $175,000 by early 2026. But it hinges on a chain of assumptions: gold’s top, investor momentum shifting, Bitcoin’s bear cycle yet unfinished, and macro conditions favourable.
Anyone considering this thesis should treat it as a hypothesis to monitor — not a guarantee. Risk-aware, diversified, and open to scenario-updates remains the prudent path.
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