On Monday, the S&P 500 closed virtually unchanged at 6,389.77, posting a minimal gain of just 0.02%. Despite a major new trade agreement between the Trump administration and the European Union, U.S. traders appeared largely indifferent, with their focus already shifting to a more impactful week ahead, filled with key macroeconomic data, a critical Federal Reserve meeting, and major tech earnings.
According to CNBC, the S&P 500 initially surged to a record high after the opening bell, only to level out later in the session—rising just 0.2% from its base level. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 64.36 points to 44,837.56, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.33% to end the day at a fresh all-time high of 21,178.58.
📜 Trump-EU Trade Deal Met with Market Apathy
President Donald Trump announced on Sunday a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU that would lower tariffs to 15% for countries entering into bilateral deals with the U.S.—a move aimed at averting the previously threatened 30% import duties. On Monday, Trump warned that nations refusing to renegotiate could face tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, calling it the “new global baseline.”
Despite the magnitude of the announcement, markets barely reacted. Investors instead remained focused on upcoming economic indicators, earnings reports from major tech companies, and—most significantly—the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
📊 The Real Drivers: Fed Decision, Tech Earnings, and Jobs Data
This week is expected to be the busiest earnings period of the quarter, with over 150 S&P 500 companies set to report. Heavyweights like Meta and Microsoft will announce their results on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday.
Investor sentiment hinges largely on tech sector spending—particularly in AI, cloud infrastructure, and CapEx. Meanwhile, the Fed begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement expected on Wednesday. Most analysts anticipate the central bank will maintain its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Also on the radar: Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which is forecast to show 102,000 new jobs added in July—down from June’s 147,000. The data is seen as a key gauge of economic momentum, especially amid signs of wage growth stabilization and labor force participation plateauing.
🌍 Europe Reacts With Frustration As Euro and Stocks Fall
While U.S. markets remain restrained, the European response was far more volatile. The euro slumped over 1% against the U.S. dollar—the steepest single-day drop since May—and fell 0.8% against the British pound.
Despite Monday’s losses, the euro remains up 12% year-over-year, buoyed by investor confidence in Germany’s increased defense spending and expectations that Trump’s “America First” stance will push Europe to strengthen its own economy.
Still, European leaders expressed dismay. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned that the new tariffs could cause “serious damage” to Europe, Germany, and even the United States.
“Not only will inflation rise, but transatlantic trade as a whole will suffer,” Merz said Monday. “This is not an ideal outcome—but perhaps the best we could manage under the circumstances.”
French Prime Minister François Bayrou went even further, calling it “a dark day for Europe” and accusing the EU of capitulating. European markets, which had opened with optimism about a favorable deal, swiftly reversed course.
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🇩🇪 Germany’s DAX: -1.1%
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🇫🇷 France’s CAC 40: -0.4%
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🚗 Stoxx Europe 600 Auto Sector: -1.8%, wiping out earlier gains
📈 Oppenheimer Turns Bullish Again on S&P 500
Despite the macro and geopolitical headwinds, investment bank Oppenheimer revised its end-of-2025 target for the S&P 500 to 7,100—up from its previous estimate of 5,950. That implies an 11.1% upside from last Friday’s closing level.
Chief strategist John Stoltzfus explained that the downgrade earlier this year had been driven by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s retaliatory tax policy, which has now been paused. Oppenheimer believes that markets are adapting to the current global trade environment and are well-positioned for further growth.
📌 Key Hashtags:
#StockMarket #S&P500 #FederalReserve #TRUMP #Tariffs #EUTrade #Nasdaq #DowJones #AIStocks #Meta #Microsoft #Apple #Amazon #JobsReport
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