Toncoin ($TON) is currently trading in the $3.30–$3.40 range after renewed spot demand and a significant public treasury funding announcement. Market participants are now closely watching the $3.70–$3.80 resistance zone, as a decisive close above it—especially on strong volume—could pave the way for a rally toward $4.40 and potentially higher.
1. Market Snapshot & Key Levels
Snapshot
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Price: $3.38
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24h Volume: ~$260M–$410M
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Market Cap / Circulating Supply: ≈ $8.6B / ~2.56–2.57B TON
Key Price Zones
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Primary Support – $3.20–$3.30
This is where concentrated demand has stepped in during recent retests. It’s an attractive swing entry area if price action shows buying tails and rising volume. -
Primary Resistance – $3.70–$3.80
This zone marks historical supply and is the short-term swing target. Watch closely for either rejection or a clean breakout. -
Breakout Trigger
A confirmed close above $3.70 on the H4/D timeframe with volume above average. A strong volume confirmation is key to validating further structural upside toward $4.40.
2. Catalysts & Risks
Bullish Catalysts
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$558M Private Funding for Toncoin Treasury
The recent treasury funding by Toncoin (Verb / TON Strategy Co.)—announced between August 7–8, 2025—signals significant institutional interest. This injection of liquidity is a major driver for market confidence. -
Improved On-Chain Transparency
Integration with analytics platforms like Nansen, alongside growing activity within the Telegram/NFT ecosystem, has boosted transparency and attracted more investor attention.
Key Risks
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Concentration Risk from Large Treasury Buys
A single entity accumulating large amounts could reverse positions unexpectedly. Tracking exchange flows and top wallet movements is essential to mitigate this risk. -
False Breakout Potential
A breakout above $3.70 without sufficient volume could result in a fakeout and range-bound chop. -
Broader Market Weakness
A macro or crypto-wide pullback could quickly stall Toncoin’s momentum.
3. Technical & Sentiment Overview
Technical Bias
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Neutral-to-slightly bullish in the short-to-medium term while $3.20–$3.30 holds.
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Recent retests and consolidations on H4/D charts suggest a coiled setup.
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A clean breakout above $3.70 with high volume would support an extension toward $4.40.
Indicators
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RSI and MACD on the daily chart are not in overbought territory, leaving room for further momentum if buyers step in consistently.
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Always recheck RSI levels before entry for confirmation.
On-Chain Signals
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Elevated large transfers and treasury-linked flows following the private funding announcement indicate growing institutional involvement. Monitoring exchange reserves and top-holder addresses remains critical.
Sentiment
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Social chatter and headlines remain upbeat post-treasury news.
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Retail interest appears reactive to on-chain updates and media coverage.
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The Fear & Greed Index is not in an extreme zone—suggesting balanced positioning.
One-Line Summary
Momentum is intact, but a breakout confirmation at $3.70–$3.80 with strong volume is crucial for a clean continuation; without it, range-bound conditions may persist.
4. Trading Plan & Setup
Entry Rules
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Aggressive Swing Entry: $3.20–$3.35 on disciplined retests with bullish price action and rising volume.
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Breakout Entry: Buy upon daily or H4 close above $3.70 with at least 1.25× average volume.
Stop-Loss Guidelines
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Swing Entry SL: Below $2.90 (clear break of demand zone).
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Breakout Entry SL: Below the breakout retest zone (e.g., $3.40–$3.50 depending on execution).
Targets
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T1: $3.70 (first major supply)
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T2: $4.40 (measured structural extension)
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T3: $5.40–$5.80 (if broader market momentum follows through)
Position Sizing
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Scalp / Intraday (H1–H4): 0.2–0.5% of portfolio per trade
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Swing (D–W): 0.5–1%
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Position Trade (M+): 1–3% only if treasury momentum thesis is intact
Preferred Timeframes: Swing trading (Daily–Weekly)
Quick Risk Checklist:
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Check order book depth & expected slippage
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Track upcoming token unlocks or governance dates
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Monitor large wallet flows and top-holder actions
Final Takeaway: Toncoin remains in a pivotal consolidation phase. As long as the $3.20–$3.30 support holds, bulls retain the advantage. However, the real confirmation will come with a decisive breakout above $3.70–$3.80 on heavy volume, potentially unlocking the path to $4.40 and higher.
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