In recent weeks, Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown only a modest uptick of around 1.2% in early November, yet its broader trend remains clearly negative — down approximately 5.9% for the week and nearly 27% over the past month.
Long‑Term Holders Exiting: A Red Flag
A key source of concern lies in the behaviour of long‑term holders — typically wallets that bought DOGE and held onto it for an extended period. On‑chain data suggests a rising tide of selling activity among these holders: the “Hodler Net Position Change” metric, which captures whether long‑term addresses are adding or reducing their holdings, shifted dramatically from +8.2 million DOGE to −22 million DOGE in just one day (on October 31) — a change of approximately 367%.
Such behaviour implies that even those who believed in the longer‑term narrative are losing faith — a worrisome sign for the support structure of the token.
Support Zone Under Pressure
According to cost‑basis heat map data, the most significant cluster of long‑term accumulation lies between US$0.177 and US$0.179, with about 3.78 billion DOGE accumulated in that range. Historically this zone acted as a buffer when selling pressure mounted.
However, given the increasing exodus of long‑term holders, that support zone may be eroding. If it fails to hold, the next meaningful support appears only around US$0.14, leaving a sizeable gap and potential risk of further decline.
Technical Indicators: “Death Cross” in the Making
On top of the on‑chain weakness, technical signals are flashing trouble. DOGE’s 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA) recently crossed below its 200‑day EMA — a phenomenon often called a “death cross” and considered a bearish sign.
Moreover, an even stronger signal may be forming: the 100‑day EMA is approaching a downward cross below the 200‑day EMA. If confirmed, this would further validate a sustained downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
Price Outlook
Currently trading around US$0.18, DOGE faces nearest resistance levels at approximately US$0.20 and US$0.21.
For a bullish reversal to be taken seriously, DOGE would need to close decisively above US$0.21 — a level it has not approached since mid‑October. Without that breakout, the existing support near US$0.177‑0.179 looks vulnerable.
If that support breaks, the path toward US$0.14 becomes increasingly plausible — representing a near 20‑25% downside from current levels.
Key Takeaways
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The retreat of long‑term holders is a strong negative signal: the “smart money” appears to be stepping aside.
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The structural support zone is under threat. If it fails, the next meaningful support is significantly lower.
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Technical indicators are aligning with the on‑chain data, reinforcing the view of weakness.
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A bullish reversal remains possible, but requires strong confirmation (i.e., a close above US$0.21).
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Risk‑averse participants should exercise caution: current conditions point toward potential further downside rather than immediate upside.
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