The current narrative around Bitcoin (BTC) suggests a familiar rhythm: a roughly four‑year cycle of boom then bust, shaped historically by its halving events and speculative peaks. However, a recent analysis argues that this cycle is not yet over — and in fact, the next major downturn may still be ahead. This article will explore what that means, why the cycle may persist (or transform), and what implications it holds for investors and the broader crypto market.
Understanding the Four‑Year Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin has moved in patterns of approximately four years, driven in large part by the halving of its block reward every four years. These halving events reduce the rate at which new BTC enters the market and have often preceded strong upward moves. After sharp rises, corrections follow — sometimes dramatic.
In the recent article, it is noted that the upcoming correction could see BTC drop by 65–70%, according to Vineet Budki, CEO of the venture firm Sigma Capital. He argues that many holders still do not fully grasp what Bitcoin is or its underlying utility — and thus may panic‑sell.
Why the Cycle May Not Be Over
1. Institutional adoption hasn’t changed the game entirely
One argument is that the four‑year cycle may still hold despite the maturing of the market. For instance, while institutional investors now hold significant amounts of Bitcoin (over 4 million BTC, representing around 20% of supply) , this doesn’t automatically mean the cycle dynamics vanish. Some analysts believe that even with institutional presence, the behavioral patterns of retail investors and macro‑cycles of supply & demand still influence price.
2. Macro environment and new factors
On the other hand, some voices, like Arthur Hayes (co‑founder of BitMEX), suggest the four‑year cycle may no longer hold as firmly because Bitcoin’s price is increasingly driven by macroeconomic factors — interest rates, liquidity, institutional flows — rather than purely the halving and speculation mechanics.
3. Real‑world utility vs speculative hype
Another dimension: Budki points out that even if price falls significantly (to say $70,000), Bitcoin’s utility doesn’t vanish. The problem is investors buying without understanding this utility may sell first when things go wrong—thus triggering sharper drops.
What Might the Next Decline Look Like?
Based on the article:
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A correction of 65‑70% is expected over the next two years, according to Budki.
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This means if Bitcoin were at, say, $110,000 (for illustration), a drop of 65% would bring it to ~$38,500. (These are purely illustrative — actual values differ.)
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The key risk factor: investor psychology. If many holders don’t fully understand what they own, they may exit en masse.
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Meanwhile, the article retains a bullish long‑term view: Budki predicts Bitcoin could still reach $1 million or more within a decade as adoption grows.
What This Means for Investors
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Risk awareness is crucial: If history repeats (or at least echoes) a big correction, being prepared for a large drawdown is wise.
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Utility matters: Ownership of Bitcoin isn’t just speculative — the narrative of BTC as “digital gold”, store of value, or global settlement layer remains. Understanding this can help distinguish holders from traders.
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Cycle vs new regime: Investors should ask: Are we in a traditional ‘four‑year’ cycle or entering a new macro‑driven regime? The answer informs strategy.
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Time horizon matters: If you believe the long‑term $1 million price target is feasible, then temporary downturns may be less concerning — but only if you are comfortable with volatility and risk.
Final Thoughts
The article suggests that while many market participants assume the four‑year Bitcoin cycle is done, there’s good reason to believe it isn’t yet completed — or that it has morphed but still exerts significant influence. A severe correction may still lie ahead, driven by a combination of investor psychology, supply‑demand dynamics, and macroeconomic forces.
For those considering exposure to Bitcoin or already holding it, the takeaway is clear: recognize both the risk of a deep correction and the possibility of long‑term upside. Whether the four‑year rhythm strictly continues or evolves into a new pattern, being informed and mentally prepared will serve you far better than being surprised.
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