The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of fragility again as the popular altcoin XRP begins the new month in a weak state. According to recent data, XRP has dropped about 5.2 % in the last 24 hours and nearly 19.1 % over the past 30 days — clear indicators of a deepening corrective phase.
Hidden Bearish Divergence: A Technical Alarm
From October 13 to November 2, XRP formed a lower high in price while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) created a higher high. This is classic “hidden bearish divergence”, which often precedes further down‑moves in an asset.
In simpler terms: even though momentum (RSI) seemed temporarily better, price action tells a different story — sellers remained in control. Unless XRP closes decisively above US $2.64, the bearish bias remains intact.
Short‑Term Holders Taking Profits = Additional Pressure
On‑chain metrics paint a worrying picture. The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) for the network is about 0.428 — close to a local peak of 0.425 reached on October 20, after which price dropped from roughly US $2.50 to US $2.36 (a 5.6 % decline in just two days).
Furthermore, the “HODL Waves” metric shows that the percentage of XRP held in wallets for 1 day to 1 week shrank from 2.28 % to 1.17 % over two weeks — a drop of nearly 50 %. That suggests short‐term holders are aggressively selling, which adds downward pressure.
Support Levels Under Threat
As selling pressure builds, key support levels are being tested. The important support around US $2.31 is under threat; if it fails, the next target could be around US $2.18.
On the flip side, if XRP manages to hold above US $2.31, there remains a path to test resistance around US $2.64 which—if broken—could invalidate the bearish setup.
Broader Perspective & What to Watch
While short‑term dynamics are tilting bearish, some macro signs suggest potential underlying strength. For instance, in other analyses the NUPL for short‐term holders has dropped to near year‑lows (≈ –0.20), which historically can signal a market bottom and subsequent rebound.
Still, technical structure matters. One analysis points out that XRP is forming a symmetrical triangle (on the 12‑hr chart) between US $2.69 and US $2.60, where a break below could accelerate the downturn to US $2.55, US $2.51 or even US $2.46.
Implications for Investors
-
Short‑Term Holders (STHs): Beware of profit‑taking cycles. If you’re holding a short term position, the current environment suggests elevated risk of further drawdown.
-
Long‑Term Holders (LTHs): Your behaviour becomes even more crucial now — if long‑term holders start selling en‑masse, it could trigger a self‐reinforcing cycle of losses.
-
Traders: Technical levels to watch: support at ~US $2.31; resistance at ~US $2.64. A clear break one way or the other may set the tone.
-
All Investors: Market sentiment, on‑chain flows and technical structure all point to a cautious approach. The potential for relief rally exists, but risk of deeper drop is very real.
In summary: The current convergence of signs — hidden bearish divergence, heavy short‑term holder unwind, key support under threat — suggests that XRP may still have some downside ahead unless buyers step in. Keeping a close eye on support/resistance tests and on‑chain holder behaviour will be crucial in the days ahead.
Ready to start your cryptocurrency journey?
If you’re interested in exploring the world of crypto trading, here are some trusted platforms where you can create an account:
- Binance – The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
- Bybit – A top choice for derivatives trading with an intuitive interface.
- OKX – A comprehensive platform featuring spot, futures, DeFi, and a powerful Web3 wallet.
- KuCoin – Known for its vast selection of altcoins and user-friendly mobile app.
These platforms offer innovative features and a secure environment for trading and learning about cryptocurrencies. Join today and start exploring the opportunities in this exciting space!
Want to stay updated with the latest insights and discussions on cryptocurrency?
Join our crypto community for news, discussions, and market updates: CryptoBCC on Youtube | Instagram | Telegram | Pinterest | Facebook | Discord | Tiktok | Threads | X(Twitter).
For collaborations and inquiries: CryptoBCC.com@gmail.com
Disclaimer: Always do your own research (DYOR) and ensure you understand the risks before making any financial decisions.
