Market Analysis Today: Bitcoin Leads Amid Altcoin Caution and AI Trading Turbulence

From a macro perspective, most of the major negative news seems already priced in. Following yesterday’s sharp global market drop, the market staged an unexpected recovery this morning. Many analysts speculate that this may be another “move” influenced by Donald Trump — the traces of manipulation by the seasoned player are becoming increasingly evident.

ETF Flows Reflect Investor Sentiment
ETF data reveals that capital is still flowing out of the two largest assets:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) saw outflows of $488 million.

  • Ethereum (ETH) experienced outflows of $184 million.

Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) surprised the market with inflows of $37.3 million, bringing the total inflow to $155 million. This indicates a mild rotation of capital toward higher-beta assets, as investors seek potentially higher returns amid the current volatility.

AI Trading Sector Update
After yesterday’s market crash, smart contract AI trading groups almost recovered all losses, yet the sector remains in net red. Except for two domestic AI models that still maintain profitability, the rest suffered significant declines.

Notably, GPT-5 currently has only around 20% of its available capital remaining, reflecting substantial losses during the recent market correction. Overall, the AI trading sector is evenly split between long and short positions, signaling high market indecision.

Among individual models, DeepSeek holds the largest short position on DOGE, reflecting a bearish stance on memecoins. Meanwhile, QWEN maintains a long BTC position in lower price ranges while taking quick profits on short-term trades — a flexible strategy that investors may find insightful.

Price Movements

  • Bitcoin ($BTC): After briefly touching a short-term low around $106,300, BTC quickly rebounded to the $110,000 area — a positive signal.

    • Key resistance: $112,000.

    • If BTC can break above this level and hold, the recovery trend may be reinforced.

    • Conversely, if BTC retests $110,000 but holds, the market remains in an accumulation phase. Only a confirmed breakdown of the descending channel would indicate a true bearish phase.

  • Ethereum ($ETH): Continuing to move in tandem with BTC, ETH has not yet shown any independent signals.

  • Altcoins: Clearly underperforming. While BTC has nearly recovered its losses, most altcoins remain stagnant. DeepSeek’s increased short positions on DOGE indicate a highly negative AI sentiment toward altcoins, particularly speculative tokens.

Conclusion
The market is currently in a critical battleground between buyers and sellers. Investor sentiment has cooled after months of continuous gains, and capital is becoming increasingly selective.

In the short term, Bitcoin remains the market center, while altcoins will require clearer signals before re-entering a growth cycle.


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