Liquidity Concerns, Not Fundamentals, Drive Market Pullback Amid US Government Reopening and Hawkish Fed Signals

Many investors have been puzzled: why did the market continue to decline even after news broke that the U.S. government is set to reopen? The answer, in fact, is quite clear. While President Trump has signed the necessary measures, the government has not yet fully resumed operations. More importantly, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to signal a hawkish stance, leaving the market facing a severe liquidity shortage.

The process of reopening the U.S. government and injecting liquidity into the system is not instantaneous—it comes with a natural delay. At this moment, the market remains in a liquidity-tight phase, making price declines not only unsurprising but almost expected.

Looking at market expectations, two main factors are currently influencing investor sentiment:

  1. Falling Odds of a December Rate Cut: The probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates in December has dropped sharply, weighing heavily on market psychology.

  2. Concerns Over the AI Bubble: Financial reports from CRWV have heightened fears that the AI sector bubble may be expanding, prompting defensive behavior among investors.

Despite these near-term pressures, a longer-term perspective provides grounds for cautious optimism. Upcoming Nonfarm Payroll data is unlikely to show strong positive growth, which could, in turn, increase the likelihood that the Fed will be compelled to cut rates in December. Furthermore, actual demand within the AI industry remains robust, and future data releases are expected to confirm this strength.

Therefore, there is no need for undue worry at this stage. The current market movements are primarily a reaction to liquidity conditions rather than underlying fundamentals. Once liquidity improves, positive trends are likely to reassert themselves, supporting a market recovery.

In conclusion, while short-term volatility may continue, the long-term outlook remains solid, driven by real economic demand and potential Fed rate adjustments. Investors should remain patient and focus on structural trends rather than temporary market swings.


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