The global investment community stands at a potentially pivotal moment. According to recent analysis, safe‑haven assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) may be on the cusp of a meaningful rally—but only if the long‑running U.S. government shutdown ends soon and triggers a surge of liquidity into markets.
A Liquidity Surge Brewing?
The argument centres on the idea that once the United States Congress reaches an agreement to reopen the U.S. federal government, there could be an injection of funding and the unlocking of nearly $1 trillion in Treasury‑held funds, sparking a wave of liquidity across asset markets. Historically, such reopenings have preceded market upticks, setting the stage for a possible rush into risk assets—and intriguingly, safe‑havens.
Analyst Dan Gambardello is cited as stating that the “end of the shutdown = a liquidity shock set to arrive.” Meanwhile, technical momentum signals in Bitcoin and precious metals appear supportive of upside potential.
Bitcoin: Momentum Building
Bitcoin has reportedly carved higher lows and higher highs after bouncing off roughly $98,944 on 4 November—pointing to renewed buyer strength. Key support is seen around $100,300, and immediate resistance near $104,300 and then $106,234. If Bitcoin closes decisively above $108,173, the next levels—$111,999 and ultimately the large supply zone around $123,084‑$124,648—could come into play.
However, if momentum fades (e.g., RSI slips below 50), there is risk of a pullback toward $98,200–$104,132, and even a drop below $100,300 could trigger a correction toward $93,708.
Gold: Flag Pattern in Play
Gold is also showing signs of a potential breakout. On the 4‑hour chart, it appears to have formed a bullish “flag” continuation pattern—a positive technical indication. The projection suggests a rise of roughly 3.16% toward $4,272, with a stronger climb possible to $4,381. With RSI at about 64, there is still room for upside before over‑bought conditions dominate. Conversely, if support around $4,061 is broken, gold could revisit $4,014‑$3,964 or even $3,899‑$3,938.
Silver: Poised for a Breakout (or a Retreat)
Silver is similarly in motion: its price is making higher highs on the 4‑hour time frame, with support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (~$50.96) holding firm. If this trend holds, silver could potentially rise toward $52.46, and possibly $54.37 (a roughly +5% move) from current levels.
That said, RSI has already breached 80—indicating over‑bought conditions. So while momentum may persist, risk is present. If silver fails to continue, dropbacks toward $49.91 (mid‑Fibonacci zone), $49.23 or $48.86 are possible. A break below $47.55 (23.6% Fib) would further open risk of ~8% downside.
Why Now Might Be “The Last Chance”
Putting the themes together, the article makes the case that we may be at “the last pull to buy” safe‑havens before the U.S. government’s reopening unleashes liquidity—and before monetary tightening (quantitative tightening, QT) ends in December. This dual driver—the tail‑end of QT and the reopening event—could converge to produce a favorable window for Bitcoin, gold and silver.
From this perspective, investors who are “late to the party” may view this as one of the final opportunities to establish positions in these assets before a potential surge—or before any reversal in momentum occurs.
Risks & Considerations
However, caution is warranted. The article itself emphasizes that these are scenarios, not guarantees. The disclaimers note that the content is informational and not investment advice. Some key risks include:
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The U.S. government may not reopen on schedule, delaying the presumed liquidity event.
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Market sentiment may already have priced in the reopening, reducing upside potential.
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Monetary tightening (QT) still looms and can offset liquidity infusion.
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Technical patterns may fail; e.g., RSI over‑bought levels, break of key support can lead to correction.
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External macro shocks (geopolitical, regulatory) could derail safe‑haven assets before the event.
Conclusion: Act With Eyes Open
In sum, the scenario outlined suggests that Bitcoin, gold and silver might be entering a rare convergence of favorable conditions: technical upside, potential liquidity infusion, and a cyclical catalyst in the government reopening. For investors comfortable with risk and with a view to short‑to‑medium term upside, this could indeed feel like a “last chance” to enter before broader flows accelerate.
Still, “last chance” does not mean “sure win” or “risk free”. As always, prudent portfolio sizing, stop‑loss discipline, and alignment with your broader investment goals remain paramount.
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