Over the past decade, Bitcoin has followed a seemingly simple and predictable pattern: roughly every four years, a “halving” cuts the block reward in half, supply is tightened, and the price reaches a new peak.
However, as Bitcoin now trades around the US $100,000 mark — having dropped nearly 20% from its October high of more than US $126,000 — the classic narrative of “scarcity leads to higher price” is losing traction.
In this article, we’ll explore how the structure of the Bitcoin market may be shifting: from a supply‑side narrative driven by halvings, to a liquidity‑driven story shaped by institutional flows, ETFs and stablecoins.
1. The “Old” Four‑Year Cycle Model
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s cycle was anchored by the halving event: every ~210,000 blocks the reward for miners halves, reducing the pace of new issuance.
The logic: less new supply + steady demand → higher price. This model fostered strong investor expectations and predictable rhythm.
But the recent price action and market structure suggest that the halving timing alone may no longer be the dominant driver.
2. Liquidity Writes a New Rulebook
According to major market‑maker Wintermute, the four‑year cycle founded on halving “is no longer fit for purpose. The driver now is liquidity.”
Key supporting observations:
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In the week ending 4 October, global crypto ETFs recorded a record net inflow of US $5.95 billion, mostly from U.S. funds. Two days later, daily net flows hit US $1.2 billion — the highest ever. This coincided with Bitcoin reaching its peak near US $126K.
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Compare that to new supply from miners after the April halving: reward is 3.125 BTC per block (~450 BTC/day, ~US $45 million at current levels) — a drop in the bucket next to multi‑billion dollar ETF flows.
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Supply may matter less; demand (especially institutional & ETF‑driven) and liquidity are taking over.
3. Stablecoins and the “Money Base” of Crypto
Another important shift: the role of stablecoins as the “base money” for crypto markets. The total supply of stablecoins is currently estimated between US $280 billion and US $308 billion.
These functions:
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Stablecoins provide ready capital to jump into positions, enabling leverage, especially when demand surges.
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If halving constrains the “faucet” of new coins, stablecoins open the “floodgates” of demand.
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In other words: rather than supply repression being the key, the availability of money and its willingness to flow into crypto is now pivotal.
4. A Market Dominated by Flows, Not Halvings
Market data from Kaiko Research underline this pivot:
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A major sell‑off in October wiped out over US $500 billion from crypto market cap, triggered not by halving but by vanishing liquidity, thin order‑books and shrinking open interest.
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In this sense, Bitcoin’s price decline wasn’t driven by miners or immediate post‑halving effects, but by a sudden absence of buyers, forced liquidations, and liquidity evaporation.
Put most plainly: this is no longer a halving‑driven cycle alone, but a market where large investors, institutional flows, ETFs and liquidity dynamics call the shots.
5. What This Means for Future Scenarios
With halving’s deterministic power receding, what could unfold going forward? The article outlines three scenarios:
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Base scenario: Bitcoin trades in a range of about US $95,000 – US $130,000, assuming ETF inflows remain modestly positive and stablecoin supply grows steadily.
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Bull case: If ETF inflows hit new records or new products get approved, price could push toward ~US $140,000.
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Downside risk: If liquidity dries up — e.g., large ETF outflows, stablecoin contraction — Bitcoin could drop to around US $90,000.
Notice: none of these scenarios depend primarily on miner issuance or halving date, but on flows and liquidity.
6. From “Halving Cycle” to “Money‑Flow Cycle”
The big takeaway: the traditional four‑year halving model isn’t dead, but it has been downgraded.
As the market matures, Bitcoin is behaving more like other major asset classes — sensitive to macro conditions, institutional participation, fund flows and liquidity.
If the last decade taught us to watch the halving date, the next one might teach us to watch billions of dollars flowing into or out of ETFs, stablecoin issuance, and global money‐flow dynamics.
Miners still play a role — but the rhythm is now set by capital. The cadence is no longer fixed by time, but by flows.
7. Final Thoughts
In the world of Bitcoin, the “every four years” clock may still tick, but it no longer holds the central key to the price story. Instead, the game has shifted: from scarcity to liquidity; from issuance to inflows; from deterministic cycles to dynamic capital movements.
If you are an investor or observer of Bitcoin, the message is clear: pay attention to the money. Watch the ETF flows, monitor stablecoin supply, track order‑book depth and global liquidity. Because the four‑year halving cycle alone can no longer be relied upon.
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