In the coming week, a convergence of major U.S. economic events may provide the catalyst that pushes Bitcoin (BTC) toward the psychological mark of $110,000. As macro-economic signals continue to dominate risk-asset sentiment in 2025, investors are closely monitoring several developments out of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and broader U.S. data releases to assess whether Bitcoin can maintain its recent momentum.
1. Speeches by Federal Reserve Officials
Several high-level Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week—including Governors and Presidents of various regional banks—and their comments will carry outsized influence on market expectations.
The crux: any hint of renewed balance-sheet expansion, or “quantitative easing” (QE), could be viewed as bullish for risk assets such as Bitcoin. For example, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signalled that “we have reached the level of reserves we believe is appropriate” and may stop shrinking the balance sheet.
In a market increasingly sensitive to liquidity, such messages may trigger renewed accumulation of Bitcoin.
2. Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly data on first-time unemployment benefit filings serve as a timely indicator of U.S. labour-market health.
• If claims come in higher than expected, it may raise fears of a cooling job market → weaker economy → higher odds of Fed rate cuts or easing → potentially bullish for Bitcoin.
• Conversely, very low claims signal a tight labour market and may delay expectations of easing, which could dampen risk-asset appetite.
Given the current backdrop of U.S. government shutdown risks, this number will attract extra attention.
3. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
On Thursday, the U.S. CPI report for October is due and may serve as a key inflation snapshot.
• If inflation remains elevated, the Fed may need to keep policy tighter for longer → risk assets may suffer.
• If inflation falls (say < 3 % year-on-year), it supports hopes of easing and a more favorable backdrop for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s path this week may hinge on whether inflation surprises on the upside or downside.
4. Producer Price Index (PPI)
On Friday, the PPI and retail-sales numbers are expected, giving further colour on inflation and consumer strength.
The PPI captures wholesale inflation pressures before consumer goods hit the shelves—thus it can foreshadow CPI moves. If PPI eases, it reinforces the case for easing policy; conversely, accelerating PPI may raise caution among investors.
Why These Events Matter for Bitcoin
In 2025, the U.S. economic backdrop remains the primary driver of risk-asset sentiment, and BTC is no exception. As the article puts it: “Investors’ expectations have become the main factor determining short-term price swings.”
Here’s how the flow works: strong easing expectations → more liquidity and risk taking → Bitcoin demand rises → upward pressure on price. The reverse holds if inflation or labour data surprise to the upside.
Given that Bitcoin recently surpassed ~$106,000 amid hopes of a U.S. government shutdown resolution and easing, these upcoming events may determine whether that run continues toward $110,000.
Key Risks and Considerations
– Government shutdown risks: The U.S. government closure may affect data-release timing, which adds uncertainty.
– Over-anticipation risk: If market expectations are too aggressive, even broadly positive data may disappoint relative to hopes, generating a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario.
– Policy divergence / macro cross-winds: Bitcoin may react not just to U.S. data but to global developments, liquidity flows, regulatory signals, and investor risk sentiment.
– Volatility: Cryptocurrency markets often amplify macro signals and move faster; the path to $110,000 may be uneven, with sharp pullbacks even in bullish scenarios.
Conclusion
With four major U.S. economic events on the calendar this week—Fed speeches, initial jobless claims, CPI, and PPI—investors in Bitcoin are entering a high-stakes window. If the data align with expectations of easing and liquidity support, Bitcoin has a credible shot at reaching $110,000. On the other hand, any upside inflation surprise, unexpectedly strong labour data, or policy hawkishness could stall or reverse the move.
In short: keep an eye on the Fed’s tone, inflation surprises, and labour-market signals. They may well seal Bitcoin’s next move.
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