As of 15 November 2025, the cryptocurrency market is flashing warning signs, especially for Ethereum (ETH). The coin has slipped below the critical $3,000 level, driven by mounting sell‑pressure from long‑term holders, dwindling on‑chain usage, and institutional withdrawal — factors that together may foreshadow a deeper correction toward the $2,500 mark.
1. Long‑Term Holder Sell‑Off: A Red Flag
Data from Glassnode indicates that addresses holding ETH for 155 days or more have recently accelerated spending. According to the analysis: roughly 45,000 ETH (approximately $140 million) per day were moved from wallets held for between 3 and 10 years.
Glassnode comments that this is the highest such spending since February 2021.
Meanwhile, publicly‐traded spot ETH exchange‐traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of approximately $259 million in a single day — the worst in weeks.
Cumulatively, since the start of November, these ETFs have recorded more than $1.42 billion in redemptions.
Put simply: when both long‐term holders and institutions are taking profit or exiting, that tends to reduce available supply held steady and raise the odds of price being pushed lower.
2. Weakening On‑Chain Metrics Underscore Demand Erosion
Other warning signs come from on‑chain usage metrics:
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The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem (via DeFiLlama) has dropped about 21% in the past 30 days.
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Network transaction fees on Ethereum plunged to roughly $27.54 million in a 30‑day span — a 42% fall — suggesting less activity and lower demand for block space.
In a healthy bullish market, you’d expect usage metrics like fees, TVL, and network activity to either hold steady or grow. Here, all are moving the wrong way. Diminishing demand and rising supply dynamics are unfavorable for price.
3. Technical Structure Points to a Deeper Correction
From a charting lens, several key levels have broken:
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Ethereum lost its 50‑week exponential moving average (EMA), around ~$3,350, which has served as a macro support.
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A classic “bear flag” (a downward continuation pattern) appears to have formed following a break below ~$3,450, aligning with the 200‑day simple moving average and the lower boundary of the flag.
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The next meaningful support region is around $3,000 — a psychological and technical line. Should that break, the model targets around $2,280 (implying a drop of ~23% from current levels).
While $2,500 isn’t the immediate model target, the momentum of the breakdown implies that a move toward that region is within plausible range if conditions remain weak.
4. Scenario Outlook: What Could Unfold
Bearish scenario (higher probability given current data):
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If long‐term holders continue to offload, institutional outflows persist, and on‑chain demand stays weak → ETH falls toward $2,500 and possibly drills deeper toward $2,200.
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Sentiment sours, triggering stop‑loss cascades among short‐term holders, exacerbating the decline.
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A break below $3,000 becomes a self‑fulfilling trigger for further selling.
Neutral to moderately bullish scenario (less likely given current signals):
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Some catalyst appears (e.g., a major protocol upgrade, renewed DeFi excitement, or large capital inflow) → Usage metrics improve, holders pause selling, and ETH stabilises around $3,000‑$3,300.
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Price could then bounce upward, reclaiming the broken moving averages and re‑establishing support.
Key support levels to watch:
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~$3,000 — if this gives way, expect deeper downside.
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~$2,500‑$2,280 — the likely targets if the bear case plays out fully.
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For a bullish turnaround: reclaiming ~$3,350 and above would be meaningful.
5. What This Means For Investors
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If you’re holding ETH and expecting price to go higher soon, you may want to reassess your risk — the current environment shows deteriorating technicals + on‑chain fundamentals.
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For new positions: consider waiting for signs of a turnaround (e.g., usage uptick, long‐term holder accumulation, institutional inflows) before committing.
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If you’re already in a losing position: setting protective stops or hedging exposure could help guard against a deeper correction.
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The broader takeaway: long‐term holders unloading and institutional outflows are red flags; ignoring them risks being caught in the next leg of the decline.
6. Final Thoughts
Ethereum’s current structure is fragile. With long‐term holders selling, institutional capital leaving, on‐chain metrics weakening and key technical supports broken, the probability of a deeper correction is elevated. The ~$2,500 region is now within reach unless something changes to shift the narrative. Cautious watchers and participants should keep an eye on usage data, inflows/outflows, and price behaviour around the $3,000 line.
As always: this content is informational only and not investment advice — always do your own research.
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