In recent days, the cryptocurrency TRON (TRX) has come under increasing pressure as several key indicators point to weakening demand across both users and derivatives markets. According to analysis published by CoinPhoton, TRX’s ecosystem is showing signs of fatigue — and if these trends persist, the token may face a sharper correction in the near term.
Ecosystem and on‑chain indicators show erosion of demand
One of the most striking signals is the decline in total value locked (TVL) on the TRON network. Data from DeFiLlama shows that TRON’s TVL dropped by approximately 6.57% within a 24‑hour period, falling below the critical US$5 billion threshold to around US$4.967 billion. This suggests that users are withdrawing funds or limiting new deposits — a sign of diminished confidence in the ecosystem’s prospects.
Meanwhile, derivatives data also paint a gloomy picture. The open interest (OI) in TRX futures contracts fell by roughly 1.68% in the last 24 hours to US$290.50 million, indicating that traders are either closing positions or are unwilling to open new ones, hinting at caution and reduced speculative appetite.
Combining these data points, the article argues that TRX is facing a scenario where both “retail / user demand” and “derivatives speculation” are waning simultaneously — a dual headwind that may exacerbate price downside.
Technical setup: Risk of support breakdown
From a technical analysis standpoint, TRX is trading below its 200‑day exponential moving average (EMA) of US$0.3029, with the 50‑day EMA having crossed below the 100‑day EMA — a classic “death cross” signal that often precedes further declines.
Moreover, the article identifies a key support level at approximately US$0.2764 (formed by prior lows on 3 February and 16‑17 March). If TRX closes decisively below that support, the next downside targets for bearish traders are US$0.2632 and US$0.2397 (linked to lows on 31 May and 18 April respectively).
Momentum indicators reinforce the risk: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 26 — firmly in oversold territory — yet continues to trend downward, while the MACD has recently crossed below its signal line for the third time since early‑October, underlining increasing selling pressure.
Implications & what to watch
The confluence of reduced on‑chain and derivatives activity along with a vulnerable technical structure suggests that TRX may be entering a phase of higher downside risk. For traders and ecosystem watchers, some key things to monitor include:
-
Whether the TVL on the TRON network stabilises or continues to decline, signalling user confidence or lack thereof.
-
Trends in derivatives OI and funding rates — rising negative funding or falling OI tends to precede capitulation phases.
-
Price behaviour around the US$0.2764 support zone — a clean break and close below may open up the next lower targets.
-
Any fundamental catalyst that could reverse the sentiment: for instance, major protocol upgrades, ecosystem growth initiatives, or macro‑crypto market shifts.
Final thoughts
While many crypto assets remain in flux, TRX appears to face a particularly precarious position: an ecosystem showing signs of user pull‑back, traders stepping back, and technical signals aligning toward weakness. That said, crypto markets are known for rapid reversals — should there be a positive fundamental development or a broader market rebound, TRX could see a recovery. Still, for now, the risk to the downside seems non‑trivial.
—————————————————-
Ready to start your cryptocurrency journey?
If you’re interested in exploring the world of crypto trading, here are some trusted platforms where you can create an account:
- Binance – The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
- Bybit – A top choice for derivatives trading with an intuitive interface.
- OKX – A comprehensive platform featuring spot, futures, DeFi, and a powerful Web3 wallet.
- KuCoin – Known for its vast selection of altcoins and user-friendly mobile app.
These platforms offer innovative features and a secure environment for trading and learning about cryptocurrencies. Join today and start exploring the opportunities in this exciting space!
Want to stay updated with the latest insights and discussions on cryptocurrency?
Join our crypto community for news, discussions, and market updates: CryptoBCC on Youtube | Instagram | Telegram | Pinterest | Facebook | Discord | Tiktok | Threads | X(Twitter).
For collaborations and inquiries: CryptoBCC.com@gmail.com
Disclaimer: Always do your own research (DYOR) and ensure you understand the risks before making any financial decisions.
