In a recent analysis, the CEO of CryptoQuant suggested that Bitcoin’s current weakness stems primarily from low market demand, hinting that the traditional 4-year halving cycle model — once a reliable framework for predicting Bitcoin’s price behavior — may no longer apply in today’s market environment.
The insights shed light on the evolving structure of Bitcoin’s ecosystem, which appears to be maturing beyond the speculative cycles that historically defined its boom-and-bust phases.
1️⃣ Whale Profits Remain Modest — A Sign of Market Maturity?
CryptoQuant’s data reveals that unrealized profits among whale investors remain relatively modest, implying one of two possibilities:
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The market has not yet entered a phase of euphoria, or
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Bitcoin’s market has grown too large to experience the same extreme gains seen in past cycles.
This moderation in whale profitability might reflect a shift toward a more stable and institutionally influenced market, where volatility is less pronounced.
2️⃣ Hash Rate Hits Record Highs Amid Mining Expansion
Bitcoin’s hash rate — a key measure of network security and miner activity — continues to climb to new all-time highs, now equivalent to approximately 5.96 million active ASIC miners.
Despite recent price stagnation, public mining companies are expanding rather than downsizing, underscoring strong long-term fundamentals and confidence in Bitcoin’s future trajectory. This ongoing investment signals that major players view current conditions as an opportunity to build, not retreat.
3️⃣ ETFs and MicroStrategy Slow Accumulation
The primary sources of new Bitcoin demand in 2024 have been spot ETFs and corporate buyers such as MicroStrategy. However, both have recently slowed their accumulation rates, reducing buying pressure in the market.
A revival in ETF inflows or renewed accumulation by institutional entities could reignite bullish momentum and restore confidence among retail investors.
4️⃣ Short-Term vs. Long-Term Whales: A Complex Capital Flow
Short-term whales — primarily ETF participants — are now near their break-even points, while long-term holders still enjoy an average unrealized profit of around 53%.
Unlike previous cycles, where capital rotated predictably between retail traders and whales, current capital flows have become increasingly difficult to forecast. Institutional involvement, derivative markets, and global liquidity conditions all play a greater role than before, adding complexity to market dynamics.
5️⃣ Strong On-Chain Fundamentals, But Limited Price Momentum
The average cost basis for all Bitcoin wallets is approximately $55,900, suggesting that most holders still enjoy a healthy ~93% unrealized profit.
Meanwhile, the realized market capitalization — which reflects the total value of coins based on their last on-chain movement — continues to rise, adding over $8 billion this week alone. This indicates strong capital inflows into Bitcoin’s network.
However, despite these encouraging fundamentals, price momentum remains constrained, suggesting that macro demand drivers — not on-chain strength — are the key factor holding back Bitcoin’s next major move.
⚖️ Conclusion
Bitcoin’s subdued demand and evolving market behavior may mark the end of its traditional 4-year cycle, giving way to a new era of institutional dominance and structural stability.
While the fundamentals remain solid — evidenced by record hash rates, robust mining activity, and profitable long-term holders — the next leg of growth will likely depend on a resurgence in demand from ETFs, corporations, and global investors.
Until then, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating in a mature, liquidity-driven phase, where macroeconomic forces rather than halving cycles dictate its future trajectory.
