In recent weeks, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed growing concern around the performance of Solana (SOL), as a number of technical signals and capital flows suggest the possibility of a deeper correction ahead. This article explores the key developments that could push SOL toward the psychologically important $100 mark — and examines whether such a drop is plausible for investors.
1. Capital Flows and ETF Activity
SOL is garnering institutional interest via exchange‑traded fund (ETF) products. According to data, the Solana spot ETF space (e.g., BSOL) has seen a 13‑day streak of net inflows, with recent additions of approximately USD 1.49 million on one day alone, raising the cumulative assets under management (AUM) to about USD 533 million.
Yet — despite these inflows — the broader risk‑off environment is evident. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded large outflows (e.g., ~$866 million and ~$259 million respectively), indicating institutional sentiment is cautious.
The contrast suggests that while SOL is receiving some support, it may not be sufficient to offset broader market weakness.
2. Breakdown of Key Supports
Technically speaking, SOL has hit a rough patch:
-
Over the past two weeks the token has lost more than 34% of its value, falling to around USD 142, its lowest since late June.
-
It recently breached its 100‑week moving average (SMA), which signaled a long‑term trend line starting from January 2023.
-
On‑chain data from Glassnode show that the UTXO Realised Price Distribution (URPD) indicates very few holders entering below ~$140 — meaning there’s limited “strong hands” defence at current levels.
Because of these dynamics, if ~$140 fails as support, the next meaningful level appears to be around $100, corresponding with the 200‑week SMA — viewed by some analysts as the “last line of defence”.
3. What Could Drive a Slide to $100?
Several factors may combine to push SOL towards the $100 threshold:
-
Weakening momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for SOL has dropped to levels not seen since April 2025, indicating growing bearish pressure.
-
ETF and institutional pullback: While Solana’s ETF space is gaining some funds, the broader crypto ETF market is suffering. A drop in confidence or redemptions in the Solana‑focused ETFs could remove a key support pillar.
-
Technical breakdowns: Breaching key trendlines and support zones often triggers stop‐losses and cascade selling, amplifying downward moves.
-
Lack of accumulation at low levels: With few investors buying under ~$140, there may be little “buying cushion” to absorb a drop. As the data suggests, there is limited accumulation below that zone.
Taken together, these signals create a scenario where the token could test ~$100 if support fails at higher levels.
4. What Would Need to Happen to Avoid the Slide?
On the flip side, several developments could help SOL hold well above $100:
-
A revival in institutional sentiment across the broader crypto market (not just Solana) could strengthen inflows.
-
Strong on‑chain metrics (e.g., growth of active users, network activity, DeFi usage) could help bolster the narrative and attract capital.
-
Technical rebound: If SOL can regain the 100‑week SMA and establish a solid base above ~$140–150, that could alleviate the immediate risk of a drop to $100.
-
Macro factors improve: Interest rate cuts (or expectations thereof), better regulatory clarity, or improved risk‑appetite could shift broader market dynamics positively.
5. Final Thoughts
While nothing is guaranteed in the highly volatile crypto space, the combination of weak support, technical breakdowns, and market‑wide risk‑off conditions places SOL in a vulnerable position. A move toward the $100 mark is plausible if the $140 zone fails to hold.
However, for those monitoring the situation, the critical levels worth watching are:
-
Immediate support at $140 (and possibly $126)
-
Deeper structural level around $100 (200‑week SMA)
-
Inflows/outflows in Solana ETFs and broader crypto ETF trends
-
On‑chain accumulation data and network activity metrics
Investors should be mindful that articles like this aim to provide information and not personalized investment advice. As the original article notes, one must conduct independent research before making decisions.
Ready to start your cryptocurrency journey?
If you’re interested in exploring the world of crypto trading, here are some trusted platforms where you can create an account:
- Binance – The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
- Bybit – A top choice for derivatives trading with an intuitive interface.
- OKX – A comprehensive platform featuring spot, futures, DeFi, and a powerful Web3 wallet.
- KuCoin – Known for its vast selection of altcoins and user-friendly mobile app.
These platforms offer innovative features and a secure environment for trading and learning about cryptocurrencies. Join today and start exploring the opportunities in this exciting space!
Want to stay updated with the latest insights and discussions on cryptocurrency?
Join our crypto community for news, discussions, and market updates: CryptoBCC on Youtube | Telegram | Facebook | Discord | X(Twitter)
For collaborations and inquiries: CryptoBCC.com@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. Always conduct your own research.
