For the first time since January 2020, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum score has dropped to zero. This is not a signal that we are at the start of a bear market cycle, as it was back in 2022. Instead, this reset comes after a prolonged bullish run, with Bitcoin ($BTC) still hovering near six-figure territory. The bigger question that emerges: Is this the calm before a new macro trend, or the beginning of a bearish chapter?
What’s Happening in the Market?
Recently, all ten key on-chain metrics—including MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), ETF inflows, stablecoin liquidity, demand growth, and trader margin—have slipped below trend levels. This paints a portrait of underlying market weakness, contrary to the price near all-time highs.
ETF and institutional flows are slowing, long-term holders (LTH) are distributing rather than accumulating, and stablecoin liquidity is drying up. In other words, Bitcoin’s upward momentum has lost steam. The market’s resilience now rests primarily on restricted supply, not surging demand.
Understanding Historical Significance
Historically, a bullish score of zero has marked significant macro bottoms (as in 2020 and 2022) or late-stage cycle distribution before a trend reversal. Comparing with recent cycles, today’s setup looks less like capitulation seen at major bottoms and more like a transition from late-stage bullishness to the early stages of a downturn.
Key Metrics Behind the Score
-
MVRV Ratio: Indicates whether BTC is over- or undervalued compared to its realized value. It has dipped below healthy trend lines, hinting at caution.
-
ETF & Corporate Inflows: Once a strong driver, these are now slowing, meaning new institutional money is no longer flooding into the market.
-
Stablecoin Liquidity: The stablecoin market acts as fuel for new crypto demand. Decreasing liquidity signals fewer fresh funds entering crypto.
-
Demand Growth & Trader Margins: Metrics like network activity, address growth, and derivatives funding are decreasing, showing that new buyers aren’t as active and traders are less aggressive.
-
Long-Term Holder (LTH) Behavior: Instead of buying more, LTH are now distributing, a pattern typical late in bull runs.
Next Steps for Market Strength
To reignite Bitcoin’s market power—or see a quick bullish turnaround—there needs to be a rapid return of ETF inflows, a resurgence of stablecoin liquidity, and a shift back to accumulation by long-term holders. Without these, Bitcoin is likely to enter a prolonged consolidation phase, marked by sideways trading and subdued volatility.
Looking Forward: Calm Before a New Macro Move or Bearish Prelude?
The present macro setup remains ambiguous. Historically, these moments of low momentum and market indecision have marked both pivotal bottoms and tops. The difference today is the lack of panic or deep capitulation. Instead, it appears to be a transitional phase, signaling either exhaustion after a strong bull run or the beginnings of a broader structural shift toward a downturn.
Investors and traders should now watch closely for signs of a turnaround: a surge in ETF inflows, rising stablecoin supplies, and renewed long-term accumulation. Without these signals, market participants should prepare for either a lengthy period of consolidation or a gradual trend reversal.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s bullish score resetting to zero at such high price levels is historic and hints at a market in transition. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this is simply a pause before the next major move, or the early signs of a new bearish phase. For now, caution and patience are warranted while awaiting confirmation of the next big trend direction.
Ready to start your cryptocurrency journey?
If you’re interested in exploring the world of crypto trading, here are some trusted platforms where you can create an account:
- Binance – The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by volume.
- Bybit – A top choice for derivatives trading with an intuitive interface.
- OKX – A comprehensive platform featuring spot, futures, DeFi, and a powerful Web3 wallet.
- KuCoin – Known for its vast selection of altcoins and user-friendly mobile app.
These platforms offer innovative features and a secure environment for trading and learning about cryptocurrencies. Join today and start exploring the opportunities in this exciting space!
Want to stay updated with the latest insights and discussions on cryptocurrency?
Join our crypto community for news, discussions, and market updates: CryptoBCC on Youtube | Instagram | Telegram | Pinterest | Facebook | Discord | Tiktok | Threads | X(Twitter).
For collaborations and inquiries: CryptoBCC.com@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risk. Always conduct your own research.
