Bitcoin Faces Sharp Drop Below $100,000 Amid $492M in Liquidations and $577M ETF Outflows
Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June 23, triggered by heavy liquidation pressure and significant fund withdrawals from spot ETFs. Over the past 24 hours, approximately $492 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across major derivatives exchanges, while $577 million was withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs, marking the largest outflow since July 1.
The sell-off came as institutional investors took profits after months of steady gains. Despite this, on-chain and retail accumulation indicators suggest that a potential rebound could form near long-term technical support levels.
Retail Demand Shows Signs of Recovery
According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Index—which measures the price difference between Coinbase and offshore exchanges—has climbed to -0.9, nearing the neutral-to-positive zone. Historically, a rising premium indicates stronger U.S. retail demand, as domestic investors are willing to pay slightly higher prices.
This shift hints at improving sentiment among American retail traders, who are beginning to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted levels. Although not yet euphoric, the data reflects a rebuilding of confidence that could lay the foundation for a short-term recovery—provided institutional outflows do not intensify further.
On-Chain Signal Suggests Accumulation Phase Still Intact
The Puell Multiple, a widely followed on-chain metric tracking miner revenue relative to its historical average, is currently around 0.9—a level typically associated with accumulation zones rather than overheating markets.
In past cycles, Puell readings below 1.0 often preceded major uptrends as miner profitability returned from depressed levels. Only when the indicator approaches 6.0 does it historically warn of excessive speculation.
According to data from Glassnode Academy and LookIntoBitcoin, the current reading implies that Bitcoin remains in a healthy mid-cycle consolidation phase, with room for upside should macro conditions remain stable.
Technical Confluence Near Key 365-Day Moving Average
Bitcoin’s price has now revisited its 365-day moving average (MA)—a long-term dynamic support level that has historically coincided with major reversal points.
In April 2024, a similar touch on the MA 365 followed a sharp correction triggered by tariff-related headlines from former U.S. President Donald Trump, only to see prices rebound shortly afterward. The same pattern reappeared in August 2024, when Bitcoin again bounced from this area.
This convergence now increases the probability of a technical rebound, especially if combined with strengthening retail demand and reduced institutional selling pressure.
Bollinger Bands Indicate Potential Rebound Target Around $115,682
The current price zone also aligns with the lower Bollinger Band, a region that has frequently acted as a launchpad for rebounds in previous market cycles.
When buying momentum increases, price tends to gravitate toward the upper band as a natural technical target. With the upper Bollinger Band currently near $115,682, this area serves as a potential short-term objective if bullish momentum re-emerges.
The confluence between the lower Bollinger Band and the MA 365 reinforces this support cluster, but the sustainability of any recovery will depend on whether ETF flows stabilize.
Institutional ETF Outflows Still a Major Headwind
Data from SosoValue confirms that $577 million flowed out of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs in a single day—the largest withdrawal since July 1. This wave of outflows has been a significant drag on Bitcoin’s recovery attempts.
As the total net asset value (NAV) of spot ETFs stands at roughly $134.5 billion, even a small percentage of capital rotation out of these funds can cause meaningful short-term price pressure.
If this withdrawal trend continues, it could flatten any rebound and even trigger another retest of the $100,000 zone, especially if accompanied by further macroeconomic uncertainty.
Macro Risks Could Extend Volatility
According to Maria Carola, CEO of StealthEX, while technical and on-chain signals lean bullish, macro uncertainty still poses downside risks.
She notes that volatility could remain elevated as long as Federal Reserve interest rate guidance remains unclear or if political risks—such as a potential U.S. government shutdown—linger. Weakening institutional appetite amid these conditions could prompt Bitcoin to revisit key supports before forming a new base.
Summary of Current Market Forces
| Factor | Details | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derivatives Liquidations | $492M in 24 hours | Bearish | Major futures tracking platforms |
| ETF Outflows | $577M, largest since July 1 | Bearish | SosoValue |
| Coinbase Premium Index | -0.9, near neutral | Bullish | CryptoQuant |
| Puell Multiple | ~0.9 (accumulation zone) | Bullish | On-chain data |
| 365-Day MA | Price near long-term support | Bullish | TradingView |
| Bollinger Bands | Lower band support, upper band target at ~$115,682 | Bullish | TradingView |
| Spot ETF NAV | ~$134.5B total | Neutral to bearish | SosoValue |
Key Takeaways
-
Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 was driven primarily by institutional profit-taking and leveraged liquidations.
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Retail investors are returning, as reflected by improving Coinbase Premium Index data.
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On-chain indicators and technical supports point toward a possible rebound, though ETF outflows remain a critical risk factor.
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Macro uncertainty around U.S. interest rates and fiscal stability could prolong volatility before a new trend emerges.
If institutional selling cools and retail accumulation persists, Bitcoin could soon stage a technical recovery toward the $115,000 region—but sustained upside will require ETF inflows to return and macro conditions to stabilize.
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