The chart of Bitcoin has recently begun revealing striking similarities to the 1970s soybean market bubble, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt. He warns that what once appeared as a steep rise might transform into a steep fall if history repeats itself.
Brandt points out that Bitcoin is forming a “broadening top” — a rare technical pattern often associated with major market peaks. “In the 1970s, soybeans exhibited a similar setup and then lost about 50% of their value,” he noted.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin has dropped roughly 5% in the past 30 days. Brandt cautions that if the pattern follows through, not only could Bitcoin face considerable downside, but companies heavily invested in it, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), might also be plunged into troubled waters.
Why This Comparison Is Concerning
The 1970s soybean bubble emerged when global supply exceeded demand, triggering a rapid price rise followed by a sharp collapse. Brandt’s comparison implies that Bitcoin may be at a similar inflection point:
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A broadening top generally indicates increasing volatility and a distribution phase among large players.
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If demand weakens or external conditions worsen, the existing supply could overwhelm buying pressure.
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The risk is not just a correction — but a sustained drop back toward earlier levels (Brandt suggests a possible retest of around USD 60,000).
Contrasting Views — Still Room to Grow
Despite the warning, plenty of analysts remain bullish. For instance, some project Bitcoin could still reach as high as USD 250,000 this cycle.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been particularly strong for Bitcoin, with average returns of roughly 78.49%, and October often proving a positive month.
Still, market sentiment has turned cautious: the Fear & Greed Index for crypto recently plunged to the “Extreme Fear” zone (score: 25).
Key Takeaways
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The formation of a broadening top in Bitcoin’s chart should be taken seriously — it has historically preceded significant declines in other asset classes.
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While bullish scenarios remain plausible, the risk of a sharp drop is elevated in the near term if conditions align with the bearish template.
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Investors should be alert to both the technical structure and broader macro-factors (e.g., inflation, supply dynamics, institutional exposure) that could trigger the next move.
“At this point, Bitcoin truly needs to hold the recent higher low and challenge yesterday’s opening — where it was rejected,” noted one trader.
“Bitcoin is being compressed and ready for a surge,” argued an analyst at 21Shares, adding that if U.S. inflation cools or the deflation narrative strengthens, upside may return quickly.
In conclusion, while the mirror to the 1970s soybean bubble does not guarantee the same outcome, it does serve as a sharp reminder of how market psychology and technical patterns can repeat across decades and asset classes. Investors should weigh both the bullish potential and the growing signs of caution.
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