As July Closes, Is Bitcoin Bracing for a Turbulent August?
With July drawing to a close, the crypto market finds itself on shaky ground. Despite a strong bullish run over the past four months, Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion—and growing sell pressure is triggering warnings from analysts. As we head into August, five emerging signals suggest that the market could be on the verge of a potential correction.
Let’s explore what these signals are and how they may shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks.
1. Dormant Whales Are Awakening — Triggering Massive Sell Pressure
Early in July, BeInCrypto reported the reactivation of a long-dormant whale wallet holding a staggering 80,000 BTC after 14 years of inactivity. The whale’s activity—reportedly supported by Galaxy Digital—coincided with Bitcoin’s failure to break new highs toward the end of the month.
CryptoQuant data reveals that large outflows from Galaxy-managed wallets have historically preceded price corrections. On July 29, Lookonchain flagged another round of significant withdrawals, fueling further concern about a new wave of whale-driven selling.
Additionally, two more whale wallets dormant for 6–14 years have reactivated, and SpotOnChain has identified three potentially linked wallets moving over 10,600 BTC—worth approximately $1.26 billion—after 3–5 years of silence. These synchronized activities suggest that selling pressure from whales could intensify in August.
2. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Are Taking Profits
The second source of sell pressure comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs), often referred to as the market’s backbone. These investors, known for their patience, are beginning to trim their positions.
CryptoQuant data reveals that LTHs started selling as Bitcoin hovered near the $120,000 mark at the end of July—a signal of rising caution. Their behavior is noteworthy because in Q1 2025, a similar wave of LTH profit-taking drove Bitcoin down below $75,000.
If LTHs continue to reduce exposure, August could see an amplified correction fueled by veteran holders exiting the market.
3. Miners Are Selling Again — Rising Supply from the Source
A third red flag comes from the mining community. Miner wallets—key indicators of supply-side pressure—have started to offload BTC again after a lull in selling activity earlier in the year.
According to CryptoQuant, outflows from miner-held wallets have been steadily increasing throughout July. Miners often sell BTC to cover operational costs or capitalize on rallies, especially after strong price surges. If this pattern continues, the added supply—combined with whale and LTH selling—could create a perfect storm in August.
4. American Investors Turning Bearish — Coinbase Premium Turns Negative
The fourth warning signal comes from U.S. investor behavior. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Coinbase (a major U.S. exchange) and Binance, recently flipped negative.
This inversion means that BTC is trading lower on Coinbase, indicating weakening demand or stronger sell pressure among American investors—a potentially ominous sign, given the region’s outsized influence on global markets.
After months of bullish readings, the reversal in the Coinbase Premium at the end of July deserves close attention. It reflects a shift in sentiment among a major demographic of institutional and retail buyers.
5. MVRV Ratio Flashing Red — Is August the Local Top?
Finally, a technical metric is also flashing warning signs. The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), which assesses whether Bitcoin is over or undervalued relative to historical norms, is approaching cyclical highs.
CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei highlights that the MVRV ratio is nearing levels seen during previous market tops. In the 2021 bull cycle, the MVRV indicator accurately forecast a double-top pattern—suggesting the market was overheating before a significant correction followed.
If history repeats itself, late August could mark a local top, setting the stage for a correction or a longer consolidation phase.
But There’s a Silver Lining: Liquidity Depth Remains Strong
While all five indicators point toward increased downside risk, a recent report from Kaiko offers some optimism. According to their findings, current market liquidity depth remains sufficient to absorb short-term sell-offs, reducing the likelihood of a catastrophic crash.
This liquidity cushion may enable Bitcoin to weather upcoming volatility more gracefully than in previous cycles.
3 Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin in August
Based on the interplay of whale activity, miner behavior, LTH profit-taking, and macro sentiment shifts, here are three plausible outlooks for Bitcoin in August:
1. Bullish Scenario
Market liquidity absorbs the sell pressure, and Bitcoin consolidates above the $115,000–$120,000 zone. This sets the stage for a renewed uptrend in late Q3.
2. Neutral Scenario
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $105,000 and $120,000, entering a period of consolidation before a clearer direction emerges in September or October.
3. Bearish Scenario
Combined pressure from whales, LTHs, miners, and U.S. investors pushes Bitcoin down to retest critical support around $95,000–$100,000 before any recovery attempts.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Month Ahead
August stands as a crucial month for Bitcoin. It could either affirm the strength of the ongoing bull trend or trigger a sharp corrective phase that resets investor expectations.
For traders and investors, now is the time to:
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Reassess risk management strategies
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Watch on-chain activity closely
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Remain nimble and informed
Whether you’re bracing for the storm or preparing to buy the dip, August will likely be a defining chapter in Bitcoin’s 2025 story.
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