Former Arthur Hayes—co-founder of BitMEX—has voiced a bold projection: he believes that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark, triggered by what he views as the likely pivot of Bank of Japan (BOJ) toward a full-scale quantitative easing (QE) programme.
In recent days, Japan’s newly-appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a fresh economic stimulus package aimed at cushioning households from inflationary pressures through subsidies for utilities (electricity and gas) and regional grants to support small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
Hayes interprets this fiscal relief initiative as a potential precursor to looser monetary policy: specifically, the possibility that the BOJ may resume or expand its asset-purchase programmes, thereby increasing the money supply. He reasons that such a shift could catalyse a steep upward move in Bitcoin’s price.
Hayes stated on social media (the platform formerly known as Twitter) that “Print money to help folks pay for food and energy,” emphasising that this trend might push Bitcoin to $1 million while the Japanese yen could also experience appreciation.
Why this matters
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Japan’s currency (the yen) recently hit its lowest level in a week following Takaichi’s assumption of office, raising investor speculation about upcoming interest-rate decisions.
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Historically, QE is understood as central banks buying government bonds or other assets to inject liquidity into the economy, lower long-term interest rates, and stimulate spending. Hayes contends that if the BOJ moves more aggressively in this direction, it may serve as a tailwind for risk assets—particularly Bitcoin.
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Despite the current stance of the BOJ being contractionary (i.e., quantitative tightening rather than easing) and with no clear indication yet of a pivot to QE until inflation hits the 2 % target, Hayes sees the political tilt under Takaichi (whom he describes as “pro-stimulus”) as heightening the odds of a policy shift sooner rather than later.
The crypto whale angle
In parallel to macro-policy shifts, Hayes noted that large cryptocurrency investors (so-called “whales”) are showing increasing bullishness on Bitcoin. For example:
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Several major wallets returned to the decentralised exchange Hyperliquid this week, depositing tens of millions of dollars to open leveraged long positions.
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A wallet identified as “0x3fce” increased its long position in Bitcoin to US $49.7 million, while another, “0x89AB”, opened a 6× leveraged long position worth US $14 million.
These developments, in Hayes’ view, reinforce his thesis that Bitcoin could run significantly higher if global monetary conditions loosen further.
Caveats & key dates
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The BOJ is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on October 29. Analysts are forecasting an interest-rate increase of 0.75 % early in 2026, but the timing for any shift to QE remains ambiguous.
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Hayes’ prediction is speculative and dependent on multiple moving parts—political willingness, inflation trajectory, central-bank behaviour, and investor sentiment. He explicitly states that the commentary is informational and not investment advice.
In summary: Arthur Hayes argues that the combination of Japan’s fiscal stimulus under Takaichi and a possible switch by the BOJ to quantitative easing could serve as a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin, potentially propelling it toward a $1 million valuation. Meanwhile, whales appear to be positioning themselves for an upswing in crypto. Whether these converging signals will materialise remains far from certain—but they provide a compelling narrative for investors to monitor.
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