In a surprising turn of events for the crypto community, the Layer‑1 token SUI has managed to rebound above the US$2.00 mark at the time of writing, even as the broader activity on its ecosystem’s decentralized finance (DeFi) side is showing signs of weakness.
📈 Price Recovery
SUI posted a gain of about 3.5%, climbing from approximately US$1.98 to above US$2.00 on Thursday. This rebound comes after a recent decline from around US$2.20, marking a modest yet noteworthy uptick amid a challenging environment.
📉 DeFi TVL Tumbles
Meanwhile, the total value locked (TVL) in SUI’s DeFi protocols has fallen significantly — by about 15% in the last 24 hours — heading down to approximately US$1.35 billion.
For context, this ecosystem once peaked at a TVL of roughly US$2.63 billion on 9 October.
Such a drop signals decreasing engagement or confidence in the DeFi layer of the SUI network, which could have implications for future momentum.
🔍 Derivatives & Sentiment Indicators
Additional metrics suggest caution:
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Open interest (OI) in SUI derivatives has fallen from around US$1.84 billion on October 1 to ~US$781 million at present.
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The funding rate is negative (~–0.007%), meaning more traders are betting on SUI’s price to drop (i.e., short positions are dominant).
These indicators reflect subdued or even bearish sentiment among active market participants.
🧮 Technical Outlook
From a chart‑analysis standpoint:
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SUI is trying to hold the US$2.00 support level.
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The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 37, which suggests that although the downward pressure remains, it may be weakening.
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The MACD indicator has given a buy signal since Sunday, hinting at possible short‑term strength.
But — and this is important — SUI is still trading below its key moving averages: the 50‑day, 100‑day, and 200‑day EMAs. That means the longer‑term downtrend remains intact unless there is a strong breakout.
Key resistance levels to watch: -
~$2.20,
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50‑day EMA around ~$2.62,
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200‑day EMA around ~$3.06.
🧩 So What Does This All Mean?
On one hand, SUI’s price recovery above US$2 is a positive short‑term sign. It shows that despite weakening on‑chain metrics (TVL, derivatives interest), there is still buying interest or at least a lack of sustained selling that allows the price to stabilize.
On the other hand, the fundamentals of the DeFi layer on the SUI ecosystem appear shaky. Declining TVL means less capital is locked in, which can impact network effects, protocol incentives, and overall ecosystem health. If the DeFi side continues to contract, it may limit SUI’s potential upside or make it more vulnerable to downside.
The derivatives data and negative funding rate suggest many traders are cautious or bearish. Without a change in sentiment, the price rebound could be fragile.
In terms of technicals, while there are signals of recovery, there’s still a gap to bridge before SUI reclaims a bullish longer‑term trend. Until SUI convincingly breaks above its major moving averages, the risk of a renewed down‑leg remains.
✅ Key Takeaways
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SUI is showing signs of life, reclaiming the US$2.00 mark despite headwinds.
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Ecosystem metrics (TVL in DeFi) are weakening, which is a potential red flag.
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Derivative/market‑sentiment data lean cautious rather than optimistic.
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Technical indicators suggest a possible short‑term bounce, but long‑term trend is still uncertain.
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If you’re considering investing or trading SUI, monitor ecosystem engagement (TVL, protocol activity), derivatives positioning, and whether key resistance zones are broken.
🔮 What to Watch Next
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Will SUI maintain and expand its position above US$2.00, or slip back?
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Will TVL on the SUI network stabilize or begin to increase again?
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Any meaningful uptick in open interest (OI) or a shift in funding rate from negative to positive would signal improving sentiment.
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Watching for breakout above the 50‑day and 200‑day EMAs would be a bullish technical milestone.
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Broader market sentiment (crypto market‑wide) and macro factors may also influence SUI’s trajectory.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Crypto markets remain highly volatile and risky — it’s important for investors to conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance.
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