The crypto market has always moved in cycles. Investors often speak about the legendary four-year rhythm — a pattern shaped by Bitcoin halvings, liquidity cycles, and crowd psychology. According to that framework, late 2025 should theoretically mark the final stretch of the bull market, or what many refer to as the tail end of the bull run.
Yet, the market rarely reveals its truth in real time. Both bull markets and bear markets share one common trait: clarity only comes in hindsight. It’s only when the dust settles — when price charts are printed in history — that investors confidently say, “Oh, that was the top,” or “That was the bottom.”
Today, we are living inside that uncertainty.
The Transition Trap: Where Hope Meets Reality
A familiar phenomenon occurs when Bitcoin begins a major correction:
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Altcoins start to bounce.
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Short-term rallies ignite excitement.
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Social media buzzes with “this one is breaking out!” calls.
These brief altcoin recoveries often create the illusion that opportunity remains abundant — that the bull isn’t finished yet. But historically, these “relief pumps” tend to serve one function:
They lure remaining liquidity before the true downtrend unfolds.
This pattern has played out in every transition phase between bull and bear cycles. Markets don’t collapse in a single candle — they fade, deceive, and exhaust optimism first.
Today, many investors believe we are already in the early stages of a macro downturn — or worse, stealthily sliding into a crypto winter.
Volatility Returns: A Sign of Change… or Temporary Turbulence?
Bitcoin dropping tens of thousands of dollars over a few days no longer shocks seasoned traders. Sharp swings, liquidity wipes, retests, and emotional extremes are all part of wave transitions in market structure.
And here lies the emotional danger:
While Bitcoin shakes violently, altcoins continue to “perform”, printing short-lived green candles and headlines of recovery. For some, it feels like opportunity. For others, it feels like a trap waiting to spring shut.
The question becomes:
Is this real accumulation, or the market’s final liquidity squeeze?
Macro Environment: The Bear Case Isn’t Fully Formed
Despite fear rising in the market, the macro picture isn’t fully aligned with a confirmed bear scenario:
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The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates
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Liquidity conditions are improving via quantitative easing-like policies
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Global monetary sentiment remains accommodative, not restrictive
If liquidity is the fuel of crypto bull markets — then we’re not in a completely dry season yet.
This is why the bull camp argues that the cycle isn’t finished. Instead, they see this period as a mid-cycle correction, not the death of the bull.
A reset — not a funeral.
A Personal View: One Last Wave Remains
From a probability standpoint, the market still appears poised for one final upward move.
Not necessarily a blow-off top.
Not guaranteed new all-time highs.
But a meaningful recovery — enough to:
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Shake off weak-hand panic
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Reignite temporary confidence
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Provide a graceful exit for late-cycle participants
The real bear — the one that erases illusions and forces reflection — may come after that final rally.
So What Should Investors Do Now?
This phase is not about aggression. It’s not the time to chase green candles or drown in fear.
Right now, the smart approach is simple:
✅ Stay calm — no FOMO
✅ Avoid emotional decisions
✅ Watch liquidity flows, not tweets
✅ Let Bitcoin show its true direction
✅ Prepare, don’t predict
In this business, survival is power.
Patience is alpha.
And clarity, as always, comes after the move — not before it.
Conclusion
The bull may not be dead — it may simply be resting, gathering breath for one final surge. But even if that wave arrives, its purpose may be less about building wealth and more about off-loading risk before winter sets in.
This is a time to be alert, strategic, and humble — not euphoric, and not despairing.
The greatest profits in crypto are rarely made by those who panic.
They’re made by those who observe, adapt, and wait for the moment others ignore.
Stay sharp. The cycle is still speaking — we just have to listen clearly.
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