In recent months, the relationships between precious metals and cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention. Although Bitcoin is often dubbed “digital gold,” the price action of actual physical gold and silver might hold clues about where Bitcoin is headed. According to recent analysis on Coin Photon, the dynamics between gold, silver and Bitcoin hint at a potential bullish opportunity.
Understanding the Mayer Multiple and Its Extension
Originally developed by Trace Mayer, the traditional Mayer Multiple is calculated as Bitcoin’s current price divided by its 200-day moving average. Historically, a Mayer Multiple over about 2.4 has signalled over-valuation, and one under about 0.8 has indicated potential undervaluation.
In recent discussions, traders have extended this model by comparing Bitcoin’s price relative to gold and silver—with each benchmark’s moving average—in effect measuring a BTC/gold or BTC/silver Mayer-Multiple.
What the Data Suggests
The article highlights that when gold or silver outperform Bitcoin for a sustained period, historically Bitcoin has often followed with a strong rebound. For example:
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The BTC/gold multiple dropped to about 0.70 in November 2022 and 0.85 in March 2020—both near deep Bitcoin market bottoms.
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The BTC/silver multiple fell below 1 in September 2020 (when Bitcoin was around ~$10,900) before its rise toward ~$60,000 in April 2021.
At present, the article says both ratios are once again in the ‘undervalued’ zone—suggesting Bitcoin may be poised to close the gap.
Macro Context and Why It Matters
Beyond the ratios, there are broader tailwinds favouring Bitcoin:
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Gold has risen ~54% year-to-date; silver ~63%; whereas Bitcoin has gained around ~21%.
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Over the longer term (five years), Bitcoin has soared over 700%, while gold and silver have only approximately doubled.
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Additional supports for the crypto market include low interest-rate expectations, increasing institutional adoption, and regulatory developments.
Taken together, the precious metals outperformance may act as a kind of signal: if gold and silver move ahead, Bitcoin may follow—especially in a favourable macro regime.
Cautions and Limitations
Of course, this is not a guaranteed roadmap. Key caveats include:
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Historical correlations do not ensure future outcomes. What held true in past cycles may diverge going forward.
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The referenced metrics (Mayer multiples, BTC/gold or BTC/silver) are based on historical data and presume a certain cyclical rhythm.
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Outside influences—geopolitical risk, regulation, technological disruption, macro-shock—can all override trend-based indicators.
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The article emphasises that it is not investment advice—and that readers must conduct their own due diligence.
Implications for Investors
For an investor watching the space, a few actionable takeaways might be:
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Tracking the BTC/gold and BTC/silver Mayer-multiples can provide a signal of potential undervaluation—even if not a precise timing tool.
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If gold and silver continue outperforming Bitcoin, the narrowing gap may suggest Bitcoin is “due” for a catch-up move.
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Because Bitcoin’s longer-term growth remains strong, the current slower pace relative to metals could be seen as a window for accumulation—though one must stay aware of risk.
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Maintain a diversified perspective: just because the models look favourable does not mean one should abandon risk-management or invest more than one can afford to lose.
Conclusion
In sum, the article from Coin Photon presents a compelling view: the price behaviour of gold and silver may act as a predictive lens for Bitcoin’s next leg. When the ratios of BTC vs precious metals fall to historically low levels, history suggests a possible rebound ahead. While not infallible, for investors looking to understand broader market rhythms, monitoring these cross-asset signals could be a useful addition to the toolbox.
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