After weeks of holding above the critical $0.30 mark, TRON (TRX) has finally slipped below this psychological level — a move that signals growing bearish control across both spot and derivatives markets. The decline follows a clear rejection at $0.325 on October 21 and coincides with a broader market cooldown that continues to test investor confidence.
Let’s dive deeper into the data to understand what’s driving TRX’s drop and what traders should watch next.
1. TRX Rejected at $0.325: Spot CVD Turns Negative, Funding Rate Flips
On October 21, TRX was rejected at the local resistance near $0.325, triggering a swift decline below $0.30 as key indicators turned bearish:
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Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) shifted into negative territory, signaling stronger market-sell activity.
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Funding rates turned negative, showing that short positions are now paying longs — a classic sign of bearish sentiment.
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Open Interest (OI) rose despite the falling price, suggesting new short positions entering the market.
The combination of these factors reflects growing trader confidence in further downside movement.
2. Derivatives Data Confirms Bearish Dominance
According to BingX and Coinalyze, TRX’s derivatives metrics paint a clear picture of bearish momentum:
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Open Interest hovers around $230 million, rising by $10 million in 24 hours while prices dropped — a strong sign that shorts are adding pressure.
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Negative funding rates suggest that short sellers are willing to pay to maintain positions, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.
When OI increases while price decreases, it often indicates the opening of aggressive short positions — and that’s exactly what’s happening with TRX.
“Open interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.”
— CFTC Glossary, 2025
3. Funding Rate and OI Alignment: A Classic Bearish Setup
When both Open Interest rises and funding rates turn negative, the market typically experiences sustained downward pressure. This alignment strengthens the bears’ control and increases the likelihood of deeper retracements.
However, traders should be cautious — weekend volatility can trigger false breakouts or “liquidity sweeps.” Waiting for a daily close confirmation or a clear retest rejection can help reduce risk exposure.
“Funding rate is the periodic payment between long and short traders to keep the perpetual contract price in line with the spot market.”
— Binance Academy, 2023
4. Spot Taker CVD Confirms Active Selling
Data from CryptoQuant shows that TRX’s spot taker CVD has been trending downward since late August. This metric captures the dominance of market sell orders, indicating that active sellers are in control.
A declining CVD, combined with negative funding and rising OI, increases the risk of support breakdowns — and that’s what we’re witnessing as the $0.30 level gives way.
5. Technical Structure: Bears Eye $0.264 as the Next Target
On the daily timeframe, TRX has formed lower highs since August — an early warning of weakening structure. The recent daily close below $0.30 adds further confirmation that short-term sentiment remains bearish.
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RSI is below the neutral 50 mark, signaling fading momentum.
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OBV (On-Balance Volume) continues to decline, confirming weak buying interest.
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The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are sloping downward, adding pressure.
Unless TRX can reclaim $0.325 with strong volume, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Next support target: $0.264 — a technical demand zone where buyers might attempt to defend.
6. Trading Strategy: Wait for Retest Before Acting
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | Target/Implication | Invalidation Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish Continuation | Failed retest at $0.30–$0.31, daily close below $0.30 | Target $0.264 | Daily close above $0.325 |
| Technical Rebound | Break and hold above $0.325 with improving volume and rising OBV | Opens room for short-term recovery | Drop back below $0.30 |
A cautious strategy is to wait for a clear retest rejection at $0.30–$0.31 before entering new shorts. On the flip side, a breakout above $0.325 could trigger a short squeeze, invalidating the bearish setup.
7. Why TRX Fell After the October 10 Market Crash
Following the October 10 market-wide drop, TRX initially showed relative strength. However, by October 21, renewed selling pressure emerged as derivatives data turned decisively bearish:
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Negative funding indicated persistent short interest.
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Rising OI confirmed that traders were adding to bearish bets.
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Falling CVD pointed to ongoing spot-driven selling.
Together, these factors pushed TRX below $0.30, confirming that bearish forces were in control both in spot and derivatives markets.
8. Key Takeaways
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Bears are in control as TRX loses the $0.30 handle with negative funding and increasing OI.
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Next key level: $0.264 support zone — potential bounce area.
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Bullish invalidation: Break and daily close above $0.325 with strong volume.
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Short-term approach: Avoid impulsive entries during weekend volatility; wait for structure confirmation.
FAQ
🔹 What does a negative funding rate mean for TRX?
It means short sellers are paying longs to keep their positions open — a bearish sentiment indicator.
🔹 What does rising OI while price falls suggest?
It signals new short positions are being opened, strengthening the downtrend.
🔹 What level could trigger a bullish reversal?
A break and hold above $0.325 with improving On-Balance Volume (OBV) could suggest renewed bullish momentum.
🔹 What’s the next downside target?
If TRX fails to reclaim $0.30–$0.31, the next likely support is around $0.264.
🔹 Should traders trade TRX over the weekend?
Weekend trading carries higher volatility and liquidity risks. It’s safer to wait for a confirmed daily close and clear trend structure.
In summary:
TRON’s drop below $0.30 reflects growing bearish sentiment across both spot and derivatives markets. While short-term volatility could trigger bounces, the overall setup favors sellers unless TRX can reclaim the $0.325 level with convincing volume.
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